Sometimes things happen or occur that seem to be related in some way. There is a hierarchy of possibilities of what may be the reason. CoincidenceCorrelationCausation The first, and often most likely, is that it is a coincidence and nothing more. Having tossed a coin and got a head does not alter the probability of … Continue reading Coincidence, Correlation & Causation
Blog Posts
Expert Opinion
It is surely self-evident that the opinions of an expert on a matter in which they have expertise are of value. If an atomic scientist offers a description of how an atom is structured then that view must surely have more merit than someone not trained nor experienced in the structure of atoms. It is … Continue reading Expert Opinion
Modern Puritanism
The term puritanism is normally associated with austere and strict adherence to a specific, and supposedly pure, form of religion. Normally a Calvinistic form of Protestantism. However puritanism can be used to embrace other and different sets of strict beliefs. Traditional puritanism is characterised by having a certainty of belief that you are absolutely and … Continue reading Modern Puritanism
Supply & Demand Equilibrium
The idea of supply and demand is often misunderstood as solely an economic concept, that only applies to the economic and financial areas. But this is not so. Ways to establish equilibrium of supply and demand are a fundamental driver of much else. Stags fight for does in the deer rut. There is a shortage … Continue reading Supply & Demand Equilibrium
Reductio ad Absurdum
If the consequences of a claim necessarily lead on to an absurd conclusion, then that statement is not likely to be credible. This is a very old form of reasoning, thought to go back to the ancient Greeks and maybe before. It entails considering the consequences of a statement and if they are self-evidently non-credible … Continue reading Reductio ad Absurdum
What Can We Do in an Uncertain World?
People have said to me that without certainty and truth then all is anarchy. But in previous blogs I have outlined why we can't know any 100% truths, or have certainty. In my book Modelling Mind I argue this is an unavoidable part of our existence, and we should drop the whole idea of truth … Continue reading What Can We Do in an Uncertain World?
Pareto’s Law
Pareto's Law claims that 80% of the outputs come from 20% of the inputs. Also known as the Pareto Principle, the "80/20 Rule", the "Law of the Vital Few" or the "Principle of Factor Sparsity". The idea encapsulated in Pareto's Law is that in many situations around 20% of the effort contributes around 80% of … Continue reading Pareto’s Law
Of Correlation and Causation
We all need to know what causes things to occur in order to survive. We need this information to avoid bad outcomes and achieve good ones. For example, if don't we accept that drinking foul water causes stomach upsets, then we are likely to suffer, if not die. However, the teasing out of what causes … Continue reading Of Correlation and Causation
Evidence for Evidence
In an earlier post, "How Can We Gain Knowledge" (May 2020), I argued that the primary, if not only, way we can justify our knowledge or belief is by the evidence that supports the knowledge or belief. However not all evidence is of equal worth, so what makes some evidence better than others. Confirmability: if … Continue reading Evidence for Evidence
Living in the Real Uncertain World
I have previously outlined why we can't know any 100% certain truths. Also we all can remember some more embarrassing cases where we have rather crassly leap to totally unjustified belief. But what can we do about this reality of our existence? We can't know the certain truth about most things. I believe that, far … Continue reading Living in the Real Uncertain World
Modelling Mind 